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Existing home sales rebounded slightly from January, but remain below where they were at this time last year.

Existing home sales rebounded slightly from January, but remain below where they were at this time last year.

The Big Story
Quick Take:
  • Median home sale prices ticked up slightly on both a month-over-month and year-over-year basis in February, continuing the holding pattern we've seen in recent months.
  • Inventory levels continue to climb modestly on a year-over-year basis, with new listings surging heading into the spring selling season.
  • Existing home sales rebounded slightly from January, but remain below where they were at this time last year.
Note: You can find the charts & graphs for the Big Story at the end of the following section.
*National Association of REALTORS® data is released two months behind, so we estimate the most recent month's data when possible and appropriate.
 
Falling rates continue to ease the affordability crunch
Although median home sale prices have remained remarkably stable over the past several months, the continued decline in mortgage rates is making homeownership considerably more affordable than it was just a year ago. In February, the median home sold for $398,000, representing a modest 0.30% year-over-year increase and a 0.76% uptick from January. On the mortgage rate front, the average 30-year rate dropped to 6.11% in February, representing an 11.32% year-over-year decline from the 6.89% we were seeing at this time last year. This decline in rates has had a major impact on what the average homeowner is paying each month. The median monthly P&I payment came in at $1,952 in February, down 7.79% from the $2,117 the median homeowner was paying just a year ago. That's approximately $165 in monthly savings, which is a significant boost to the average American's budget. If rates continue to trend downward, we could see buyers start to return to the market in a meaningful way as we move deeper into the spring and summer months.
New listings are surging as we head into the spring
One of the most encouraging stories in the housing market right now is the dramatic increase in new listings as we move into the spring selling season. In March, there were 439,000 new listings that hit the market, representing an eye-popping 21.21% month-over-month increase and a 0.70% year-over-year increase. This surge in new listings is a very welcome sight, as it means buyers will have considerably more options to choose from as the market heats up. On the inventory side, there were 1,290,000 homes available for sale in February, representing a 4.03% year-over-year increase and a 2.38% month-over-month increase. This gradual build in inventory, combined with the huge surge in new listings, should give buyers some breathing room as we head into the busier months of the year. That said, inventory levels still have a long way to go before they reach the levels we'd consider truly healthy, so it'll be worth keeping a close eye on whether this momentum carries through the spring.
Existing home sales are showing early signs of life
After a sluggish January, existing home sales rebounded slightly in February, with 4,090,000 homes changing hands. This represents a 1.74% month-over-month increase, but still comes in 3.99% below where we were this time last year. While it's certainly encouraging to see sales pick back up, the year-over-year decline tells us that buyers are still being cautious despite the substantial drop in mortgage rates that we've seen over the past year. Part of the story here may be that buyers are waiting to see even more rate cuts before they jump in, or they may be waiting for the influx of new listings to give them more options to choose from. Either way, it'll be fascinating to see whether the combination of lower rates, climbing inventory, and a fresh wave of new listings is enough to bring buyers off the sidelines in the coming months.
A market that's slowly tilting back toward balance
When determining whether a market is a buyers' market or a sellers' market, we look to the Months of Supply Inventory (MSI) metric. The state of California has historically averaged around three months of MSI, so any area with at or around three months of MSI is considered a balanced market. Any market that has lower than three months of MSI is considered a seller's market, whereas markets with more than three months of MSI are considered buyers' markets.
 
At the national level, we're seeing an interesting dynamic play out. Inventory is growing at a modest pace on a year-over-year basis, existing home sales are lagging slightly behind last year's figures, and new listings are surging into the market just as we head into the traditionally busy spring season. All of this suggests that the market is slowly tilting back toward a more balanced state, which would be welcome news for buyers who have been dealing with tight inventory for years. However, if mortgage rates continue to drop and buyers finally decide to come off the sidelines, we could just as easily see the market swing back in favor of sellers. As always, real estate is a highly localized asset, which is why you should check out what's going on in your local market below in the Local Lowdown!
Big Story Data
The Local Lowdown
Quick Take:
  • San Francisco led the Bay Area with explosive price growth in March, as single-family homes climbed more than 18% and condos surged more than 27% on a year-over-year basis.
  • Inventory levels remain well below last year across every corner of the Bay Area, with year-over-year declines ranging from roughly 10% in Silicon Valley to more than 41% in the North Bay.
  • Single-family homes are selling at a blistering pace, with the average listing in Santa Clara County moving in just 8 days and San Francisco homes selling for nearly 23% over the original asking price.
  • The Bay Area's single-family home market is overwhelmingly a seller's market, while the condo market is offering more balance, with several East Bay and North Bay counties sitting firmly in buyer's market territory.
 
Note: You can find the charts/graphs for the Local Lowdown at the end of this section.
San Francisco steals the spotlight as prices diverge across the region
March delivered a wide range of price action across the Bay Area, with San Francisco clearly leading the pack. The median single-family home in San Francisco sold for $2,150,000, representing an 18.24% year-over-year increase, while the condo market posted a remarkable 27.17% surge to a median sale price of $1,357,500. Silicon Valley saw more mixed results, as San Mateo County single-family homes climbed 5.45% year-over-year to $2,175,000, while Santa Clara County dipped 1.65% to $2,080,188 and Santa Cruz County dropped 7.14% to $1,300,000.
 
The East Bay remained remarkably stable on the single-family side, with Alameda County essentially flat at $1,357,000 and Contra Costa County down just 1.14% to $870,000. The North Bay told a more challenging story, as Napa County single-family homes declined 10.61% to $885,000 and Marin and Solano Counties posted modest pullbacks. However, Sonoma County was a bright spot, posting a 1.16% year-over-year gain to $875,000. The condo market was characteristically volatile, with double-digit declines in several counties offset by eye-popping gains in Santa Cruz and Napa Counties.
Inventory remains severely constrained across the Bay Area
Despite the arrival of the spring selling season, inventory levels across the Bay Area remain well below where they were a year ago. The North Bay continues to experience the most severe shortage, with single-family home inventory down 41.16% year-over-year and condo inventory down 31.06%. San Francisco isn't far behind, with single-family inventory down 34.46% and condo inventory down 34.30%, leaving fewer than 650 homes available for sale in the entire city.
 
The East Bay has seen single-family inventory decline by 22.23% and condo inventory drop by 17.60%, while Silicon Valley rounds out the picture with single-family inventory down 9.68% and condo inventory down just 5.30%. The good news is that new listings and sold listings are picking up across the region as the spring market heats up. Silicon Valley saw new single-family listings jump 34.14% month-over-month, and most North Bay counties posted meaningful month-over-month improvements as well. However, with buyer demand still outpacing new supply in most markets, inventory levels are likely to remain suppressed in the near term.
Single-family homes are flying off the shelves across the region
The pace of sales for single-family homes across the Bay Area is nothing short of remarkable as the spring market kicks into high gear. In Santa Clara County, the average home is selling in just 8 days, while San Mateo County homes are moving in 10 days. San Francisco single-family homes are selling in just 12 days, and East Bay listings are closing in 12 and 13 days in Alameda and Contra Costa Counties, respectively.
 
The North Bay saw dramatic month-over-month improvements, with Marin County single-family homes selling in just 15 days, down 31.82% from February, and Sonoma, Solano, and Napa Counties all posting double-digit month-over-month declines in days on market. The condo market is a more mixed picture. San Francisco condos are moving at a blistering 14-day pace, a stunning 46.15% year-over-year decline, while San Mateo County condos are also moving faster than last year. However, Santa Cruz County condos are taking an average of 96 days to sell, and Santa Clara County condos are spending 76.92% more time on the market than they were last March.
Sellers remain in the driver's seat as spring heats up
When determining whether a market is a buyers' market or a sellers' market, we look to the Months of Supply Inventory (MSI) metric. The state of California has historically averaged around three months of MSI, so any area with at or around three months of MSI is considered a balanced market. Any market that has lower than three months of MSI is considered a seller's market, whereas markets with more than three months of MSI are considered a buyers' market.
 
The single-family home market is firmly in seller's territory across nearly the entire Bay Area. San Francisco sits at just 1.0 months of supply, while San Mateo County has 1.3 months and Santa Clara County has 1.5 months. Alameda County has 1.6 months of supply, Contra Costa County and Marin County both sit at 1.8 months, Solano County at 2.2 months, Sonoma County at 2.3 months, and Santa Cruz County at 2.5 months. Napa County remains the lone outlier at 5.5 months, though this still represents a 27.63% year-over-year decline. The condo market continues to offer more breathing room for buyers. San Francisco has tightened dramatically to just 2.3 months of supply, shifting from a buyer's market last year to a strong seller's market today. Sonoma County sits at 3 months, San Mateo County at 3 months, Marin County at 3.2 months, Solano County at 3.5 months, Santa Clara County at 3.6 months, and both Alameda and Contra Costa Counties at 3.7 months. Santa Cruz County and Napa County round out the list at 4.1 and 5 months, respectively. With single-family inventory remaining tight across the board, sellers in that segment will continue to enjoy significant leverage as we head deeper into the spring selling season.
Local Lowdown Data

Recent Blog Posts

Stay up to date on the latest real estate trends.

Median home sale prices ticked up ...
Inventory levels continue to climb modestly on a year-over-year basis, with new listings surging heading into the spring selling season.
Existing home sales rebounded slightly from January, but remain below where they were at this time last year.
New listings are ticking up as we head into the spring
Median home sale prices are virtually flat on a year-over-year basis, as the market has settled into a holding pattern despite lower mortgage rates.
Inventory levels remain slightly elevated compared to last year, but the gap continues to narrow
Rates continue to fall, as lending markets price in lower long-term interest rates
Inventory and sale metrics are roughly in line with what we were seeing around this time last year.
Housing got substantially more affordable on a year-over-year basis in December.
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