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New listings are ticking up as we head into the spring

New listings are ticking up as we head into the spring
The Big Story
Quick Take:
  • Median home sale prices are virtually flat on a year-over-year basis, as the market has settled into a holding pattern despite lower mortgage rates.
  • Inventory levels remain slightly elevated compared to last year, but the gap continues to narrow.
  • Existing home sales have pulled back on both a month-over-month and year-over-year basis, signaling that buyers are still waiting on the sidelines.
Note: You can find the charts & graphs for the Big Story at the end of the following section.
*National Association of REALTORS® data is released two months behind, so we estimate the most recent month's data when possible and appropriate.
 
Lower rates are finally making homeownership more affordable!
One of the biggest stories in the housing market right now is the continued decline in mortgage rates, and what that means for the average homebuyer's wallet. The average 30-year mortgage rate sat at 6.16% in January, representing a 10.85% year-over-year decline from the 6.91% we were seeing just a year ago. This decline in rates has had a direct impact on monthly payments, with the median monthly P&I payment coming in at $1,959 in January, down 7.90% from the $2,127 that the median homeowner was paying this time last year. That's roughly $168 per month in savings, which is great news for the average American.
 
However, despite the fact that rates have come down substantially, the median home sale price has remained remarkably stable, coming in at $396,800 in January. This represents just a 0.86% increase on a year-over-year basis, and a 2.05% decline from December. It seems like the market has found a bit of equilibrium, as lower rates are being offset by cautious buyers who aren't quite ready to jump back in just yet.
New listings are ticking up as we head into the spring
As we move out of the seasonally slow winter months, we're starting to see new listings pick up, which is a great sign for the market heading into the spring. In February, there were 362,180 new listings that hit the market, representing a 2.41% year-over-year increase and a 10.01% month-over-month increase. This uptick in new listings is encouraging, as it suggests that homeowners are starting to feel more comfortable putting their homes on the market. On the inventory side, there were 1,220,000 homes available for sale in January, which is up 3.39% on a year-over-year basis. While this is certainly a step in the right direction, it's worth noting that inventory levels are still well below the levels we need to see in order for the market to truly become balanced. That said, the combination of rising new listings and modestly higher inventory levels should give buyers a few more options to choose from as we head into the busier spring months.
Buyers are still taking their time on the sidelines
Despite the fact that mortgage rates have come down by nearly 11% on a year-over-year basis, buyers are still being cautious. In January, existing home sales came in at 3,910,000, representing a 4.40% decline on a year-over-year basis and an 8.43% decline from December. This tells us that while the affordability picture has improved quite a bit, many buyers are still waiting for rates to come down even further before they make their move. It's also worth considering that the seasonal slowdown plays a role here, as January is historically one of the slower months for home sales. As we move into the spring and summer, it'll be worth keeping a close eye on this metric to see if the lower rates and increasing inventory levels are enough to bring buyers off the sidelines.
A market that could go either way in the coming months
Right now, the national market is in an interesting position. Inventory levels are slightly higher than they were last year, but existing home sales have declined, which means that the supply of homes on the market is lasting a bit longer than it was at this time last year. With new listings beginning to pick up heading into the spring, and buyers still largely sitting on the sidelines, we could see inventory continue to build in the coming months. However, if mortgage rates continue to trend downward, that could be the catalyst that brings buyers back into the market in a big way. As always, real estate is a highly localized asset, which is why you should check out what's going on in your local market below in the Local Lowdown!
Big Story Data
The Local Lowdown
Quick Take:
  • Median sale prices declined across most of the North Bay in February, with Napa County single-family homes down 20.86% and Marin County down 5.74% on a year-over-year basis.
  • Inventory levels remain critically low, with single-family home inventory down 47.88% and condo inventory down 38.71% compared to last year.
  • Listings are moving more quickly in most counties, with days on market declining sharply in Marin, Sonoma, and Solano Counties on a month-over-month basis.
 
Note: You can find the charts/graphs for the Local Lowdown at the end of this section.
A slow start to the spring selling season
February brought some disappointing price action across much of the North Bay's single-family home market. Napa County saw the biggest decline, with the median single-family home selling for $840,500, a 20.86% drop compared to February 2025. Marin County also experienced a pullback, with median sale prices declining 5.74% year-over-year to $1,602,500. Solano County saw a 5.43% decline, while Sonoma County was essentially flat at 0.06%. The condo market painted an even more challenging picture. Napa County condos dropped 54.85% year-over-year, Marin County condos fell 33.54%, Solano County declined 13.39%, and Sonoma County dipped 5.36%. While these numbers may look concerning, it's important to remember that condo sales volumes are relatively low, which can lead to significant swings in median sale prices from month to month.
Inventory remains at historic lows
The inventory squeeze that has defined the North Bay market over the past several months shows no signs of letting up. Single-family home inventory now sits at just 1,634 units across the region, down a staggering 47.88% compared to February 2025. The condo market is experiencing a similar crunch, with inventory down 38.71% year-over-year to just 247 units. New listings are also well below last year's pace, down 45.90% for single-family homes and 47.30% for condos. The silver lining is that sales activity is holding steady, with single-family home sales flat year-over-year and condo sales actually up 8.06%. This combination of limited supply and steady demand continues to create a challenging environment for buyers looking to enter the market.
Homes are flying off the shelves
Despite the price corrections we're seeing, listings are actually moving faster than they were last month in most counties. Single-family homes in Marin County saw the most dramatic improvement, with the median listing selling in just 22 days, down 63.93% from January. Sonoma County single-family homes sold in 44 days, down 32.31% month-over-month, while Solano County came in at 42 days, a 20.75% improvement. Napa County bucked the trend, with days on market increasing 26.98% to 80 days. On a year-over-year basis, we're seeing mixed results. Sonoma, Marin, and Solano County single-family homes are spending 29.41%, 22.22%, and 20.00% more time on the market, respectively, while Napa County is actually 4.76% faster. The condo market was volatile as usual, with Marin County condos spending 231.25% more time on the market year-over-year, while Solano County condos moved 17.46% faster.
The spring market is shaping up to be a seller's market
When determining whether a market is a buyers' market or a sellers' market, we look to the Months of Supply Inventory (MSI) metric. The state of California has historically averaged around three months of MSI, so any area with at or around three months of MSI is considered a balanced market. Any market that has lower than three months of MSI is considered a seller's market, whereas markets with more than three months of MSI are considered buyers' markets.
 
February brought a continued tightening of inventory across the North Bay, pushing most markets further into seller's territory. The single-family home market is now firmly a seller's market in three of the four counties. Marin County has just 1.2 months of supply, down an incredible 68.42% year-over-year. Sonoma County sits at 1.8 months (down 57.14%), and Solano County has 2 months of supply (down 31.03%). Even Napa County, which has historically been more balanced, has tightened to 4.1 months of supply, a 40.58% year-over-year decline. The condo market has also shifted, with Marin County at 2.4 months (down 52% year-over-year), Sonoma County at 2.9 months, Solano County at 3.2 months, and Napa County at 4 months. As we head into the spring selling season, sellers remain in the driver's seat across most of the region.
Local Lowdown Data
 

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Stay up to date on the latest real estate trends.

New listings are ticking up as we head into the spring
Median home sale prices are virtually flat on a year-over-year basis, as the market has settled into a holding pattern despite lower mortgage rates.
Inventory levels remain slightly elevated compared to last year, but the gap continues to narrow
Rates continue to fall, as lending markets price in lower long-term interest rates
Inventory and sale metrics are roughly in line with what we were seeing around this time last year.
Housing got substantially more affordable on a year-over-year basis in December.
Despite falling interest rates, inventories still remain higher than they were at this point last year.
Mortgage rates are currently at the lowest point they’ve been at in recent years, as the Fed continues its rate cut cycle.
As interest rates continue to fall, median monthly P&I payments do as well, making housing slowly but surely more affordable on a national scale.
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