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Inventory and sale metrics are roughly in line with what we were seeing around this time last year.

Inventory and sale metrics are roughly in line with what we were seeing around this time last year.

 
 
The Big Story
Quick Take:
  • Housing got substantially more affordable on a year-over-year basis in December.
  • Rates continue to fall, as lending markets price in lower long-term interest rates.
  • Inventory and sale metrics are roughly in line with what we were seeing around this time last year.
  • Despite the fact that we’ve seen interest rates come down quite a bit over the last year, median home sale prices are roughly in line with where they were last year!
Note: You can find the charts & graphs for the Big Story at the end of the following section.
*National Association of REALTORS® data is released two months behind, so we estimate the most recent month's data when possible and appropriate.
 
As interest rates fall, median monthly P&I payment has fallen too!
Interest rates have been in a downward cycle for quite some time, as the Federal Reserve has been lowering the federal funds rate. As you might expect, that means that the median monthly P&I payment has declined by quite a bit too. Right now, the median homeowner is paying $2,023 per month to service the P&I on their mortgage, which is down 5.02% from $2,130, just a year ago. This is great for the average American, as it means they have more money in their pocket to spend, or potentially save for their next move! In the beginning of December, the average 30-year mortgage rate was 6.15%, and has continued to fall since!
Mortgage rates are at the lowest level we’ve seen in quite some time!
Fortunately for home buyers and sellers, the lending markets are beginning to believe that interest rates will remain low in the near and medium term future. This has led interest rates to continue inching down almost every month. In the past few weeks, we’ve seen the average 30-year mortgage rate at the lowest level it’s been in the past three years, which is tremendous news for the housing market. Unfortunately though, it doesn’t seem like the Fed will lower rates during the next FOMC meeting, as CME FedWatch currently has the probability of a March rate cut at just 7.9% at the time this was written. However, if you extend your time horizon out a bit, it does seem like there’s a good chance we see a rate cut or two throughout the rest of the year.
Inventory and sale metrics are roughly in line with last year
Although interest rates are coming down, and housing is becoming more affordable, we’re not seeing much change in terms of inventories, new listings, or existing home sales. Existing home sales and inventories are up 1.40% and 3.51% on a year-over-year basis, respectively. At the same time, new home listings are up just 0.68% on a year-over-year basis. This suggests that there are still a lot of buyers waiting on the sidelines for rates to come down even more before they pounce on their next home. It’ll be worth paying attention to all of the metrics we track as we move through the seasonally slow winter and into the spring and summer when the market really heats up. If we see a rate cut or two prior to the first heat wave of the year, we could see some bidding wars throughout the summer!
We’re likely to see rates stay where they are in the near term
As we mentioned above, we are likely to see rates stay where they are at least in the next FOMC meeting or two. While there was some speculation that the next appointed Fed Chair would create a Fed that is less autonomous in it’s decisions, the market does not believe that future Chairman Warsh will be the wildcard that many were anticipating. This can largely be supported by the fact that we’ve seen precious metals sell off precipitously recently, as these are typically considered a hedge when the dollar is less-than-stable. However, only time will tell, which means it’ll be more important than ever to pay attention to Fed commentary!
 
It’s important to note though, that all of this is what we’re seeing at a national level. As we all know, real estate is a highly localized asset, which is why you should check out what’s going on in your local market below in the Local Lowdown!
Big Story Data
The Local Lowdown
Quick Take:
  • Median sale prices surged in Marin and Napa Counties, with single-family homes up 19.86% and 18.75% year-over-year, respectively, while Sonoma and Solano Counties saw slight declines.
  • Inventory levels have collapsed across the North Bay, with single-family home inventory down 45.19% and condo inventory down 36.60% on a year-over-year basis.
  • Listings are spending considerably more time on the market, with single-family homes in Sonoma County sitting 44.44% longer than they did last January.
 
Note: You can find the charts/graphs for the Local Lowdown at the end of this section.
Marin and Napa lead a strong start to 2026
January brought some impressive gains to the North Bay's single-family home market, particularly in Marin and Napa Counties. The median single-family home in Marin County sold for $1,750,000, representing a remarkable 19.86% increase compared to January 2025. Napa County wasn't far behind, with the median single-family home selling for $1,045,000, an 18.75% year-over-year jump. However, not all counties shared in the gains. Sonoma County saw a 2.26% decline in median sale price, while Solano County was essentially flat with a 0.13% decrease. On the condo side, the story was mixed as usual. Sonoma County condos saw a healthy 10.71% year-over-year increase, and Napa County condos jumped 13.90%. Marin County condos also gained 4.98%. However, Solano County condos took a significant hit, declining 37.34% on a year-over-year basis.
Inventory has reached critically low levels
The inventory crunch that began late last year has intensified dramatically. Single-family home inventory across the North Bay now sits at just 1,494 units, down a staggering 45.19% compared to January 2025. The condo market has experienced a similar contraction, with inventory down 36.60% year-over-year to just 220 units. The good news is that new listings are starting to pick up after the holiday lull, with single-family new listings up 70.50% month-over-month and condo new listings up 102.33%. However, even with this uptick, new listings remain well below last year's levels, down 43.76% for single-family homes and 38.30% for condos on a year-over-year basis. Until sellers begin entering the market in greater numbers, buyers will continue to face stiff competition for a limited pool of properties.
Patience is a virtue for today's buyers
Despite the inventory squeeze, buyers appear to be taking their time when making offers. The average single-family home in Sonoma County sat on the market for 65 days in January, representing a 44.44% increase compared to last year. Marin County single-family homes also spent more time on the market, averaging 61 days, though this was only a 1.67% year-over-year increase. Solano County saw a modest 4.08% increase to 51 days on market. Interestingly, Napa County bucked the trend, with the average single-family home selling slightly faster than last year, down 1.59% to 62 days. On the condo side, Sonoma County condos are spending 44.68% more time on the market, while Solano County condos are taking 47.37% longer to sell. However, Marin and Napa County condos are actually moving faster, with year-over-year decreases of 24.56% and 56.29%, respectively.
A dramatic shift into seller's market territory
When determining whether a market is a buyers' market or a sellers' market, we look to the Months of Supply Inventory (MSI) metric. The state of California has historically averaged around three months of MSI, so any area with at or around three months of MSI is considered a balanced market. Any market that has lower than three months of MSI is considered a seller's market, whereas markets with more than three months of MSI are considered buyers' markets.
 
January brought a dramatic shift toward seller's market conditions across nearly every segment of the North Bay. The single-family home market is now firmly in seller's territory across all four counties. Marin County leads the way with just 1 month of supply, down an incredible 68.75% year-over-year. Sonoma County has 1.6 months, Solano County has 1.9 months, and even Napa County, which had been a strong buyer's market throughout 2025, has dropped to just 3.8 months of supply. The condo market has also tightened considerably, with Marin County at 2 months of supply (down 50% year-over-year), Sonoma County at 2.3 months, Napa County at 3.7 months, and Solano County at 3.6 months. If you've been waiting to list your home, now may be an excellent time to take advantage of these favorable conditions before spring inventory arrives.
Local Lowdown Data

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Rates continue to fall, as lending markets price in lower long-term interest rates
Inventory and sale metrics are roughly in line with what we were seeing around this time last year.
Housing got substantially more affordable on a year-over-year basis in December.
Despite falling interest rates, inventories still remain higher than they were at this point last year.
Mortgage rates are currently at the lowest point they’ve been at in recent years, as the Fed continues its rate cut cycle.
As interest rates continue to fall, median monthly P&I payments do as well, making housing slowly but surely more affordable on a national scale.
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