Affordability remains an issue nationwide...

The Big Story

Quick Take:

Affordability remains an issue nationwide, as monthly P&I payments ticked up by 2.90% year-over-year.
Mortgage rates are finally starting to decline, as we enter a rate-cutting cycle.
Inventories are still growing at a faster rate than existing home sales.
Quick observation about Macroeconomics/The Broader Market

Note: You can find the charts & graphs for the Big Story at the end of the following section.

*National Association of REALTORS® data is released two months behind, so we estimate the most recent month's data when possible and appropriate.

Mortgage rates have begun to decline thanks to the Fed

Recently, the Fed came out and announced a quarter-point cut to the federal funds rate, but that was not the most exciting news that they announced. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell announced that we should expect two more quarter-point cuts before the end of the year, signalling that we are in the beginning innings of a Fed cutting cycle. This, of course, is huge news for the housing market. Despite the fact that many markets have retained much of their post-pandemic gains in value, the housing market has been largely stagnant, with inventories building as home buyers decide to sit on the sidelines and wait.

Affordability remains a concern throughout the country

Housing affordability has been a huge problem facing the country ever since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. Although many thought that home prices would decrease as interest rates increased, many markets did not see a normalization of home prices. This, of course, has left many prospective home buyers worried about where the market will go as we enter a new rate-cutting cycle. Many fear that lower interest rates may bring a slew of new buyers to the market, pushing home prices up even further, and making home ownership even less attainable for first-time buyers. On the flip side, homeowners stand to benefit in a huge way if declining interest rates lead to a housing frenzy, as they’ll accumulate significant equity in a very small period of time, just like what we saw throughout 2020-2022.

Inventories continue to build nationwide

As we mentioned above, the national inventory is quite a bit higher than last year, with 11.68% more homes listed on the market. This really underscores the fact that buyers have decided mainly to throw in the towel and wait for a better chance to purchase a home. When you combine this with the fact that there were 4.88% more new homes hitting the market than this time last year, you have a recipe for growing inventory!

Current market dynamics have created an interesting setup for 2026

As we move into the seasonally slow months, the market environment that we’re in is setting up for what could be a very interesting 2026. Inventories are still growing (for now), and interest rates are falling, which could put us in a very interesting position when the spring frenzy begins next year. It’ll be important to keep a keen eye on both the market and broader macroeconomic conditions throughout the fall and winter, so that you and your clients are ready for whatever spring has to throw at you.

All of this is just what we’re seeing at a national level, though. To get a better idea of what’s going on in your local market, be sure to check out your local lowdown below:

Big Story Data

The Local Lowdown

Quick Take:

Last month we saw a big upward swing in median sale prices for single-family homes in San Francisco
Inventory continues to be one of the largest issues facing the San Francisco housing market.
Listings continue to be sold at faster and faster rates.

Note: You can find the charts/graphs for the Local Lowdown at the end of this section.

Median sale prices for single-family homes jumped by more than 7% in September

Last month, we saw a big move upward in terms of median sale price for single-family homes in the San Francisco area. The median listing sold for 7.76% more than it did around this time last year, which marks the largest increase in this particular market that we’ve seen all year. When we turn to the condo market, median sale prices decreased by 3.29%. However, it is important to note that the average condo is now selling for a slight premium to the original listing prices, which is a phenomenon that we haven’t seen since May.

Inventories continue to lag last year's numbers by more than 30%

Inventory issues have been plaguing San Francisco for several years, as the number of active listings slowly dwindles. Unfortunately, nothing changed this month, as single-family home inventories are down 33.65% on a year-over-year basis, and condo inventories are down by 32.22% on a year-over-year basis. This was driven by the fact that fewer new listings are hitting the market, with 7.61% fewer new condo listings and 11.26% fewer new single-family home listings, and compounded by the fact that there were 51.82% more condos and 19.33% more single-family homes sold.

As inventories shrink, homes are sold off incredibly quickly

As you might expect, when inventories shrink, the market becomes much more competitive, which is certainly the dynamic that we are watching play out in San Francisco. The average single-family home is spending just 13 days on the market, representing a 7.14% year-over-year decrease. By the same token, the average condo listing is spending just 25 days on the market, representing a 28.57% year-over-year decrease and a 50.98% month-over-month decrease.

The condo market creeps closer to becoming a seller's market

When determining whether a market is a buyers’ market or a sellers’ market, we look to the Months of Supply Inventory (MSI) metric. The state of California has historically averaged around three months of MSI, so any area with at or around three months of MSI is considered a balanced market. Any market that has lower than three months of MSI is considered a seller’s market, whereas markets with more than three months of MSI are considered buyers’ markets.

While the single-family home market has been a heavily entrenched seller's market for quite some time (and it still is, with just 1.5 months of inventory on the market), the condo market has traditionally been more buyer-friendly. However, it’s been creeping closer toward being a seller's market as of late, with the condo market reporting just 3.2 months' worth of active inventory on the market in September.