San Francisco Market
Note: You can find the charts & graphs for the Big Story at the end of the following section.
*National Association of REALTORS® data is released two months behind, so we estimate the most recent month's data when possible and appropriate.
Although we are just about to exit the slow season for real estate sales, things are looking great overall. We saw a slight decrease in the number of sales on a year-over-year basis in February, with there being 4,260,000 sales in February 2025, compared to 4,380,000 in February 2024. However, on the flip side, we saw considerably more inventory added this year, with 1,240,000 homes on the market in February of this year, compared to 1,060,000 homes on the market around this time last year.
This means that all over the country, buyers have many more options than in recent years, which may lead to listings sitting on the market for a bit longer than what we’ve seen over the past couple of years. When you couple this with the fact that there are more new listings being added to the market, with just over 10% more listings added in March of 2025, compared to March of 2024, we might see some power start moving away from sellers to the buyers.
Additionally, this uptick in new listings might be an indication that sellers are starting to accept the fact that considerably lower mortgage rates aren’t coming anytime soon. Although many were holding out hope over the course of the past couple of years, the Fed has made it very clear that they’re not looking to drop rates by a considerable margin anytime soon. This, of course, means that prospective sellers have an important choice to make - whether they should sell, or continue holding out. From the data that we’re seeing, it seems that many sellers are beginning to choose the former option!
When turning to affordability, we saw a rather interesting phenomenon - median monthly P&I payments decreased by nearly 5%, all while interest rates and median sale prices increased by just under 4%. This likely means that there was a considerable cohort of homeowners out there that locked in rates toward the end of 2023 when rates were at a local high, and recently refinanced when rates came down a bit. The median consumer having an additional $100 in their pocket each and every month is a great thing for the economy, especially when we face economic uncertainty, tariffs, and ever-changing geopolitics!
Lastly, it’s important to note that it’s business as usual in terms of the Federal Reserve. In their recent FOMC meeting, they decided to hold the federal funds rate firmly where it has been over the past couple of months. Fed officials also indicated that they are not in a rush to lower rates by a considerable margin anytime soon. However, that could always change, as we’re living in an incredibly dynamic era right now! Additionally, the Fed is continuing to offload mortgage-backed securities at a steady pace!
Ultimately though, this is just what we’re seeing at a national level. As we all know, real estate is an incredibly localized industry, so knowing what’s going on in your own market is pivotal. Below is our local lowdown, that outlines everything you need to know about what’s happening around you in your neighborhood and surrounding areas!
Quick Take:
Note: You can find the charts/graphs for the Local Lowdown at the end of this section.
Throughout recent years, we’ve seen single-family homes maintain their values fairly well in San Francisco, with the median sale price of a single-family home in the area increasing by 6.63% over the course of the past four years. However, when we turn to the condo market, these homes have not been holding their value nearly as well, with the median sale price for a condo in San Francisco decreasing by 12.52% over the course of the past 4 years. This really highlights that buyers are much more interested in standalone homes, rather than shared buildings!
As you might expect in an area like San Francisco, when there is a hot commodity, like detached single-family homes, buyers have to pay a premium, which is exactly what they’re doing right now! The average home in San Francisco is selling for 114.7% of its original asking price. This is a level that we haven’t seen since June of 2022, when the real estate market started its downtrend after the Fed began raising rates! When you couple this with the fact that inventory looks like it will continue to be an issue, we might have ourselves a recipe for a red-hot market this year!
Unfortunately, the inventory issue that San Francisco is facing is nothing new. We’ve been observing the fact that inventories have been down-trending in the area for quite some time. This past month, we saw the growth in sold listings outstrip the growth in new listings once again, resulting in even lower inventory levels. This is a serious issue that’s likely a symptom of the much larger issue - housing affordability. As we all know, housing affordability has been a huge topic of discussion for years at this point. Oftentimes, those who own their homes and have a low interest rate locked in are very hesitant to move, as that likely means taking on a larger loan at a higher interest rate, making their cost of housing considerably more expensive!
When determining whether a market is a buyers’ market or a sellers’ market, we look to the Months of Supply Inventory (MSI) metric. The state of California has historically averaged around three months of MSI, so any area with at or around three months of MSI is considered a balanced market. Any market that has lower than three months of MSI is considered a sellers’ market, whereas markets with more than three months of MSI are considered buyers’ markets. Right now, there’s just 1.5 months' worth of single-family home inventory on the market, making it a seller-dominant market. However, on the flip side, the condo market has 3.7 months worth of inventory on the market, meaning that there are some deals to be had out there for buyers that are looking for a condo!
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